By Maj Gen pushpindra Singh

Taking care of security

Get priorities right to face challenges by Maj-Gen Pushpendra Singh (retd)

INDIA’s strategic environment has altered dramatically. In a perilous situation, we face three tough challenges (China has played a conspicuous role in two of them).

First, Pakistan has been adding quantitative and qualitative teeth to its nuclear arsenal with two Chinese supplied plutonium reactors in its Khushab facility, indicating success of its efforts to produce advanced compact warheads. A US Congressional research service report now credits Pakistan with developing parity with India, even as it continues expanding and accelerating its nuclear weapons programme.

The report says, Pakistan achieved this through concealed and hardened missile silos complemented by mobile missiles, all under upgraded air-defence shields. These revelations do have a ring of authenticity.
Meanwhile, North Korea called the West’s bluff to emerge from the nuclear closet as an overt Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) and exposed the West’s’ toothless threats. The efficacy of UN-imposed sanctions rests critically on Chinese enforcement – a doubtful proposition. Can Iran now be far behind, if Ahmadinejad’s resounding re-election gets confirmed?

The Asian landmass is fairly bristling with NWS actors. Our nine-year-old nuclear deterrent remains ‘work-in- progress’. Our Scud-type liquid-fuelled missiles can only reach Pakistan whose missiles of Chinese and North Korean origin are decidedly superior. China has stepped forward its India-targeted missiles to Tibet, minimising our reaction time for detection of launch and for taking defensive measures. In response, our retaliatory second strike cannot reach even close to China’s heartland.

A pre-requisite for a no-first-use policy – which we have declared – is a credible second-strike capability. This remains only a wish. Our nuclear submarine, the backbone of a second-strike against China, is still to undergo many months of sea trials. There is thus a definite urgency to rev up the induction of China-capable missiles and credible, SLBM-equipped nuclear submarines. Concomitantly, our recessed nuclear posture needs a review along with a reliable C4I2SR structure in place.

The second facet relates to the US policy in our region. Analysts consider that its Af-Pak policy has ignored India’s legitimate security concerns. The Bush Administration had reversed the traditional US tilt towards Pakistan and forged a closer relationship between the oldest and largest democracies. Now, the Obama-people seem to have reverted to type by blind-siding India’s legitimate security interests. While Obama meticulously avoided using the K-word in conjunction with its Af-Pak formulation, limiting the war on terror to Afghanistan and Pakistan while going soft on Pak-exported terror to India, is unlikely to succeed.

Then again, yielding to Pak pressure and giving it unconditional and substantial aid ignores the 40-year history of such aid being utilised against us. Therefore, UPA-II has its task cut out in placing our legitimate regional concerns on the US radar. No lasting solution to the ‘jihadi’-terror can ignore its Kashmir-centric facet.

Even as Pakistan grapples with its internal devils we need to remain alert to any attempts to divert public attention from its problems by raising the India-bogey and attempting yet another military misadventure against us. Ee must have contingency plans in place to preclude jihadis’ access to WMDs. This calls for enhanced intelligence efficacy and a plan for plugging gaps in our conventional capability.
The final facet concerns the newly revealed pugnacity in China’s gheraoing of India. In addition to the string-of-pearls naval bases designed to control Indian Ocean’s nodal sea-lanes, China has moved to undermine India’s ties with Nepal and Sri Lanka besides helping Pakistan enhance its nuclear weapons programme.

The articulation of its now-evident animosity results from success of sustained strategic efforts. The rail link to Lhasa (being extended to Kathmandu), support of Maoists in Nepal and emergence of a strong blue-ocean fleet with sophisticated SLBM-equipped nuclear submarines are all products of a decades-long strategic vision pursued with sustained and purposeful vigour. This is in such sharp contrast to MoD’s failure to produce even a single strategy paper in 62 years – or even to approve, comment on, or reject the 11th Defence Plan, three years after the clock for the Plan started ticking. Time and events do not await MoD’s convenience!

Consequently, India’s defence and strategic preparedness has been irresolute and patchy and simply unequal to the severe challenges confronting the nation.

Last week, China bared another of its fangs at the Asian Development Bank when it moved to block $2.9 billion credits to India ostensibly because they included development assistance for some Arunachal Pradesh projects. This recalled the relevance of Chanakya’s wisdomin Arthashastra: “it is the Mauryan soldier (read military strength) which alone enables the nation to prosper and grow economically”.
We can break the dragon’s gherao by now looking ahead and starting energetically to meet current challenges; assigning due priority to defence and strategic issues; and above all, reversing decades of sidelining professionals from strategy formulation.

There must be a subtle but sustained diplomatic effort with China’s other neighbours to assuage their nervousness at its Middle Kingdom syndrome. Central to this endeavour must be cementing deeper economic and strategic cooperation with Japan. Others would include Central Asian Republics and ASEAN, specially Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines.

UPA-II should engage the Obama administration to regain some Bush-era warmth and attain some convergence between respective strategic perceptions. Given Clinton’s Indian friends, getting our message across would be simple but achieving a degree of congruity will need much hard work, considering the administration’s declared priorities. Some insurance will need to be taken out by fostering closer understanding with Russia, UK and EU countries.

While UPA-II sets its priorities in restoring double-digit growth and poverty alleviation, it would be fruitful to recall Chanakya’s ancient wisdom and also propel India to strategic security, militarily and diplomatically. But the big challenge may lie in finding the will to boldly confront strategic challenges facing the nation.
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